Geopolitics - Trump

US forces enter Iran by..?

$8,444,139 Vol. Mar 3, 2026

Polymarket

March 11 $2,633,209 Vol.

4% ▼ 44%

March 19 $976,626 Vol.

20% ▼ 31%

March 31 $2,246,358 Vol.

34% ▲ 11%

December 31 $510,264 Vol.

59% ▲ 10%

Additional context (updated Mar 3): Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down or other cases where US military personnel do not deliberately enter Iran's terrestrial territory will not qualify.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for a given date if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by that date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to "No" for that outcome.

Qualify: Military special operation forces will qualify.

Do not count: Intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Do not qualify: Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET.

UMA Resolver: 0x65070BE91...

Comments (1,992)

Frequently Asked Questions

This is a prediction market where you can trade on whether US military personnel will physically enter Iranian territory by specific dates (March 11, March 19, March 31, or December 31). Each date is a separate outcome with its own Yes/No prices.

Total volume across all date outcomes is over $8 million. March 11 has the highest single-date volume, followed by March 31 and March 19.

Connect your wallet, choose a date outcome from the list, then click Buy Yes or Buy No in the list or use the trade card on the right. Enter an amount and place your order.

Odds vary by date. For example: March 11 about 4%, March 19 about 20%, March 31 about 34%, and December 31 about 59%. Prices update as the market trades.

Each date resolves to Yes if active US military personnel physically enter Iran's terrestrial territory by that date (11:59 PM ET). Only deliberate operational entry counts; intelligence operatives, contractors, and diplomatic visits do not qualify. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Yes. You can watch the market and follow the odds without connecting a wallet or placing a trade. Connect and trade only when you want to participate.

Prices are set by real money trading. Traders have an incentive to be right, so over time the market tends to reflect informed views. Past Polymarket markets have shown strong accuracy.

Connect your wallet (e.g. MetaMask or email), add funds, then pick a date outcome and click Buy Yes or Buy No. Enter the amount you want to risk and confirm the trade.

It means the market currently implies about a 59% chance that US forces will enter Iran by December 31. If you buy Yes at 59¢ and the outcome resolves Yes, you receive $1 per share (about 70% profit).

Each date outcome closes at 11:59 PM ET on that date. March 11 closes Mar 11, March 19 closes Mar 19, and so on. December 31 closes at 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026.

Check the Comments section above for discussion. Traders often share views on timelines, resolution rules, and news that could move the odds.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where you can trade on the outcomes of real-world events. You buy Yes or No shares; correct predictions pay out at $1 per share.

US forces enter Iran by..?

Comments (1,992)

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